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The Edmonton Oilers will need valuable contracts for the NHL team this fall and there are few candidates on the pro roster.

Estimates are that the team currently has around $4 million that will be available for the final five spots on the roster (assuming a few mid-tier contracts are released). That means veteran NHL players like Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark could be back, and several AHL players who pushed for playing time in 2022-23 could be promoted to full-time in the NHL.

The organization hopes players who have been drafted or signed as amateur free agents will take many of those jobs and do it for less than $1 million on the cap.

Names that could fit that description include Raphael Lavoie and Noah Philp (both FRG), as well as prospects with AHL experience (Xavier Bourgault, Carter Savoie, Tyler Tullio and Markus Niemelainen).

There’s one prospect graduating from junior hockey this spring that fans should be watching.

Matvey Petrov is dynamic, has a skill set the Oilers need right away and could be more advanced than the average junior pro. He was ranked No. 8 on the 2022 winter prospect list and has moved up since trading Reid Schaefer and two graduations (Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg) to the parent Oilers.

Schaefer’s trade means Petrov is the highest-ranked junior player entering professional hockey in the fall.

Looking at the Oilers players drafted out of the OHL in recent seasons (aside from Connor McDavid, who went straight to the NHL), Petrov’s offense at 19 is clear of a strong group of prospects. of the Oilers who played in the same league recently.

It’s a good list, all four men will have professional careers and Ryan McLeod is establishing himself as a most useful NHL regular. Tyler Tullio is signing up and Kirill Maksimov has played in Europe for most of the past three seasons.

When he was drafted, Petrov’s scouting report listed his height (6-foot-2, 195 pounds) and his hands (he’s an excellent passer and boasts a 16.5% shooting percentage).

I looked at his comparables at the end of Petrov’s first OHL season (2021-22) and found names like Christian Dvorak, Jared McCann, Brendan Perlini and Akil Thomas. McCann enjoyed great success in the NHL, with Dvorak also establishing himself as a league regular. Perlini has played 262 games and Thomas is still pushing although injuries have impacted progress.

It’s a good list.

The natural next step is to take his current season and find games at 19. Is this group better?

Again, the peer group is strong, with some fine scoring forwards (Tyler Bertuzzi, Michael Bunting, Owen Tippett) included in the group. Games aren’t as strong due to Petrov’s lower goal tally in his second season in the OHL, but he averaged 0.63 goals per game in 2021-22.

One find in the search for comparable players was Tristen Robins, a 2020 San Jose Sharks second-round selection. Petrov is taller but the game is solid. Robins is playing his rookie season in the AHL this year, and so far his offense (11-18-29 in 52 games) is similar to that of Bakersfield Condors forward (and Oilers top prospect) Xavier Bourgault.

HockeyProspecting does a great job of giving fans and watchers a chance to match players to see if they’re comparable. In the case of Petrov and Bourgault, there are commonalities.

Petrov’s weight is 195 pounds, via the OHL website, and he’s taller than Bourgault. They were similar in the juniors (volume shooters, shooting percentage close to 20%) and Bourgault showed a surprisingly complete game in his first season in the AHL. The Oilers are unlikely to see that kind of quick adjustment from Petrov, which means more time in the minors to hone his skills without the puck.

Regardless, comparable players remain encouraging for Petrov at 19.

Where will it land in 2023-24?

Petrov will enter professional hockey with a talented group of wingers ahead of him.

On the current Condors roster, Holloway and Lavoie will likely play in Edmonton during the 2023-24 season. Current AHL rookie forwards Bourgault, Tullio and Savoie will also be ahead of Petrov on the depth chart.

One of the key issues surrounding Petrov is laterality and what that will mean when he turns pro. Petrov is a right-handed left-winger, identical to Lavoie on the Condors’ current roster.

Edmonton has been moving forward from left wing to right wing since Jari Kurri in 1980, but that’s not a hard and fast rule. Here’s a quick look at Bakersfield’s depth chart on the wing next season.

Tyler Benson and Justin Bailey were reportedly rejected by previous Oilers management, but general manager Ken Holland is extending minor league players like no one in team history.

If Petrov plays on Colin Chaulk’s left wing at Bakersfield, Benson and Savoie are likely competition. A reasonable career path might have Petrov playing deep (mid six, that’s the second and third lines) to start the year, then eat away playing time after Christmas. Injuries will also have their say.

The right wing is less engaging. Seth Griffith is signed and at the AHL level he is an impact scorer. Bourgault and Tullio have done enough this season to enter training camp as star players.

The smart bet would have Petrov playing on a line with Brad Malone or Greg McKegg at center on Opening Night in 2023-24.

NHL Timeline

Since Holland’s arrival in Edmonton, everyone has played a season in the AHL — even a first-round selection like Holloway.

On the other side, Lavoie is finishing his entry-level contract without ever playing an NHL game, and the organization has been patient with him down the line.

This tells us to expect Lavoie to have plenty of time to find his calling in the minors.

It also tells us that even a strong rookie season probably won’t get Petrov much time in the NHL in the coming year.

He is a substantial prospect. After trades this year, Petrov is among the top five prospects in the system. He’ll have every chance to thrive in professional hockey, but smart money puts him in Bakersfield for 2023-24.

(Photo: Larry MacDougal/AP)